The rainy season is at its peak. It often feels as though the rain never stops falling from the sky, casting a gloomy hue over the days and making the nights feel noticeably colder.
According to Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), Lombok, or the province remains firmly within the most active phase of the monsoon, with heavy rainfall expected to persist through the end of January and, in several areas, well into February 2026.
“This is still the rainy season for West Nusa Tenggara,” she said in an interview with RRI on Tuesday, January 20. “Based on our predictions, January falls within the peak phase of the monsoon.”
While this situation will continue for some time. She stated that the people need to be more careful because, this is possibly not gonna be the peak of the rainy season. Yet, it is going to keep pouring at least until February.
“The peak of the rainy season in several regions could last until February, therefore heavy rain could happen at anytime” she adds.
In the perspective of the atmospheres, Nindya mentioned that the weather in Lombok, Indonesia is still influenced by the La Nina that is already getting weaker.
“As of now, ENSO remains in the weak La Niña category,” Kirana explained. “It is predicted to last into early 2026 and then transition toward neutral conditions in the middle of the year.”
This means that, the plan for surfing and hanging out on the beach need to be reconsidered. As then rainfall levels could range from normal to high, driven by sustained atmospheric activity across Indonesia. BMKG data shows that over the past ten days, rainfall across most of the province has been classified as high to very high.
“In the last ten days, rainfall across West Nusa Tenggara has predominantly fallen into the high to very high category,” Kirana said.
As hiking in Mount Rinjani is still being halt, or closed momentarily, the BMKG also said that Sembalun, where the Rinjani sits were recording an extreme heavy rain. Sembalun, in East Lombok, recorded an extraordinary 488 millimeters of rain within a single ten-day period—an amount that BMKG classifies as extreme on the dasarian scale.
Looking ahead, BMKG forecasts that heavy rainfall is likely to continue through the final third of January. In several areas, precipitation exceeding 100 millimeters per ten days remains a strong possibility, with probabilities ranging from fifty percent to more than ninety percent.
Northern Lombok and northern Bima are of particular concern. While the risk of heavy rain is relatively widespread, BMKG’s forecast maps indicate that these regions face the most significant potential impacts.
“The distribution is fairly even,” Kirana said, “but the highest potential is in North Lombok and North Bima.”
Compounding the situation is tropical cyclone activity in the broader region. BMKG is currently monitoring an active tropical cyclone north of Indonesia, near the Philippine Sea—Tropical Cyclone Nokaen—as well as a developing cyclone system south of the country. Both systems are influencing national weather patterns.
In light of these conditions, BMKG has urged residents of West Nusa Tenggara to remain vigilant, particularly in areas prone to flooding, landslides, and waterlogging.
“We encourage the public to continue monitoring official weather updates from BMKG,” Kirana said, “and to stay alert as high rainfall persists.”
For now, the rain continues, but the rain offers its own quiet pleasures: lingering over long coffees, booking a spa treatment, exploring local food spots, or watching the clouds drift across rice fields and volcano slopes from a sheltered veranda.
